Economics
Bahamian economy faces ‘elevated’ downside risks – Rolle
FX reserves more than adequate to support currency’s US dollar peg, central bank governor says
ECB economists expect food inflation to rebound in 2027
Energy costs and weather are set to reverse a slowdown that began in January
Rising advanced economy debt will push up rates in emerging markets
Rising public debt burdens are spilling across borders, and the effect may become stronger, say Carlos Arteta, Steve Kamin and Franz Ulrich Ruch
UK inflation comes in higher than expected
Markets’ reaction muted so far, as government prepares to announce budget on October 28
Banrep paper proposes LLM-driven forecast method
Sequential design enables economists to study ‘information environment’
Fed finds larger-than-expected bank exposure to private credit
Researchers add sector to national accounts for first time
French prices half as sensitive to oil as in 2016 – BdF blog
Lower household fuel use and less oil-intensive production reduce pass-through to consumers
Big Mac price never catches up with dollar – Dallas Fed blog
Prices barely adjust to currency swings even after four years, economists find
AI growth could offset effects of ageing in Asia – Georgieva
At launch of Shaping the Future of Asia, ex-governors discuss factors behind region’s growth
Little evidence of second-round inflation in UK – Bailey
BoE governor says economy more resilient than expected, amid signs of AI investment
Tighter financing and high oil prices dominate Fed Beige Book
But strong variations exist between districts
Lagarde cools speculation of ECB rescue amid French debt woes
Central bank chief urges her home country to get its fiscal house in order
Fiscal consolidation still possible in France – Moulin
BdF governor says Europe facing twin shock from surge in energy costs and bond yields
Young people less likely to be hired in age of AI – BdF blog
Technology’s impact less pronounced among older workers, as French firms opt to retain senior staff
Softer expectations needed for AI-led growth – BIS paper
Large-scale automation could weaken profit incentive that drove technological progress, economist says
Resilience is watchword in IMF’s World Economic Report
Tenreyro says sources of oil, trade and tech inputs should be diversified if economies are to withstand shocks
Credit shocks hit GDP harder in more equal countries – CNB study
Effects more severe in economies with lower income gaps, but redistribution can cushion blow
Oil futures gloomier than reality during conflicts – Feds note
Commodity has become hedge against macroeconomic risk, research finds
Working group minutes: Central banks adopt scenario analysis
Approach is guiding institutions’ responses to Middle East war and El Niño
IMF flags gaps in Somalia’s financial reform efforts
Fund notes progress, but says central bank should go further to safeguard stability
Mexico’s monetary policy should remain tight, IMF says
Banxico should strengthen comms and limit government bond purchases to short end of curve, fund adds