Economics
Economics Benchmarks 2026 report – advanced analytics
AI usage is increasing, but banks still vary in their approaches
China’s growth model may deepen tensions with US – paper
PIIE research says economic policies driven by ‘national security logic’ may be contradictory
Eurozone inflation expectations steady as job fears grow
ECB’s latest data signals inflation is stabilising, but downward shift in labour sentiment may be ahead
Americans worried about their country’s solvency – NBER study
Bond investors, voters and economics graduates think risk of a US debt crisis is high, paper says
Nepal has greater stability, but now it needs growth – IMF
Fund’s mission chief says central bank reforms are among measures laying path for future prosperity
Book notes: The banker who made America, by Richard Vague
This well-researched book makes a strong case that without the efforts of Thomas Willing, the US war of independence may well have been lost
Bitcoin has become ‘more equity-like’ – San Francisco Fed study
Asset’s ‘financialisation’ has helped it enter same sphere as stocks, paper argues
Mexico sovereign bond rigging case settled in New York
Agreement appears to resolve remaining claims over banks’ alleged manipulation of sovereign debt market
Tariff-induced inflation pressure begins to recede in US – study
Lower effective levies are translating into slower consumer price growth, St Louis Fed researchers say
Geopolitics is fastest-rising research topic for economists
Research economists are most widely judged on their output of papers
Sticky wages help explain depressed US sentiment – paper
Lack of salary indexation, rather than inflation, to blame for decline in sentiment, authors find
Slovak firms face high costs from heatwaves – blog post
Companies need to invest in adaptation, says central bank official
Economists devote up to half of working hours to research
Higher-paid research economists tend to spend more time on own research
Central banks predict growth more accurately than inflation
AI models may offer more precise forecasts
AI impact and usage growing in central bank economics departments
Regional variation exists, but adoption is increasing across the board
External shocks tighten credit conditions – ECB bulletin
New index finds funding becomes scarce after unexpected changes in economic activity
Most key projection models capture policy rates
But respondents rarely disclose policy rate forecasts alongside scenarios
Yield curve data can improve estimates of r* – IMF paper
Results suggest r* has risen and help explain ‘soft landings’ after inflation surge
Third of key models now employ endogenous financial sector
Multiple channels of monetary transmission rooted in majority models
Fresh graduates’ job market perception worsened by 23% in 2025 – ECB
Research points to slowing growth in knowledge-intensive services to explain otherwise ‘cyclical’ effect
Central banks complement traditional models with AI
Time series and semi-structural models remain economists’ choices for forecasting