Economics
High tariff regime in the US is ‘here to stay’ – BoE’s Taylor
Impact on trade flows and pricing will take years to play out, MPC member says
Shipping congestion drives up inflation – IMF paper
Study of tracking data shows delays at ports are reflected in headline inflation
Fed paper touts prediction market data for monetary policy
Sites like Kalshi could become “new benchmark” for measuring expectations, researchers say
Dallas Fed researcher cautions against expansionary policy
Study of US in the 1970s says oil shocks were not primary driver of inflation
Emerging economies likely to lag advanced in AI-led growth – study
BIS report highlights divergence in technology’s impact on jobs and countries’ ability to adapt
Net zero transition could boost productivity – BoE paper
Impact of carbon tax depends partly on spillovers from green technology, economists say
IMF and NBU rework models to reflect Russia-Ukraine war
Forecast process redesigned to take account of battlefield uncertainty and additional policy tools
Price change frequency upped inflation post-Covid – study
Size of individual changes had same effect on overall prices as during normal times, ECB paper finds
Models need rethink due to effect of global shocks – paper
Central banks can no longer assume shocks are ‘temporary, linear and symmetric’, authors say
BIS paper models fiscal influence on monetary policy
Researchers propose alternative mechanism to fiscal theory of the price level
Global liquidity surge continuing, BIS figures show
Lending to non-banks continues to lead cross-border credit expansion
EU cannot fully disconnect from US, say Nagel and Kocher
German and Austrian governors say bloc can take steps to gain more sovereignty
US stock crash would be ‘felt across the world’ – BdF deputy
Current account imbalances cannot be solved unilaterally, argues Bénassy-Quéré
BoE’s new forecast evaluation unpacks causes of errors
Global shocks and wage growth led bank to underestimate inflation persistence
BIS study finds no long-term decline of global dollar use
Reports of euro’s demise are also greatly exaggerated, researchers say
ECB and ESRB warn of financial stability risk from geopolitics
New model takes prediction data to show US domestic politics affecting eurozone financial markets
BoE’s Greene: impact of Fed easing on UK remains unclear
Spillovers via trade channel could push domestic inflation up or down, MPC member says
Trade liberalisation with China increased US wages – study
Fed researchers find ‘long-suspected’ benefits for labour market
Paper calls for ’systematic monitoring’ of cyber risks
Non-financial firms’ credit risk indicators not accounting for ‘sharp increase’ in incidents, say authors
Beige Books show promise at predicting recessions – study
LLM data on Fed reports is more accurate at forecasting downturns than yield spread, authors find
Ricardian equivalence does not hold in reality, study finds
Researchers say consumers do not fully plan ahead for expected tax liabilities