Economics
US tariffs unlikely to halt progress on global trade – BoE’s Taylor
UK inflation expected to fall in near term due to trade diversion, MPC member says
Broader view of debt sustainability is needed – NBER paper
Government debt is not necessarily at historical highs, authors say
US ‘bearing large share’ of tariff costs – NBER paper
Authors find pass-through is nearly 100% and is reshaping how country trades
Winds of change 2026: managing opportunities
Shifts in monetary and fiscal policy are reshaping fixed income markets
Winds of change 2026: managing opportunities
Shifts in monetary and fiscal policy are reshaping fixed income markets
EMs gain less from GenAI adoption than AEs – BIS study
Service economies with strong digital and legal frameworks best placed to benefit from AI
Dollarisation tends to come in waves – Fed researchers
Authors say the euro once may have been a rival to the dollar
Mutual funds amplify FX sensitivity to capital flows – study
Investment in Swiss bonds increasingly linked to franc’s value, SNB paper finds
NBFIs grew twice as fast as banks in 2024, FSB finds
Annual report highlights strong growth in investment funds but flags lack of data on private credit
Water scarcity threatens economies, IMF and BIS warn
Studies say impacts on growth, inflation, fiscal policy and balance of payments are likely to worsen
Manufacturing will not be jobs engine in US – St Louis Fed study
Authors say periods of rising productivity in sector have been accompanied by drops in employment
Is this the end of dollar dominance?
Steve Kamin tracks evolving investor attitudes to the US in the wake of 'Liberation Day'
Tariffs may permanently raise medical goods costs – NBER study
Research also finds that trade barriers can worsen domestic supply shortages
US inflation expectations hold steady in November – NY Fed
Latest survey shows increasing concerns over medical costs and financial welfare more generally
IMF opens third China office in Shanghai
Institution and PBoC say new hub will conduct research into Asia-Pacific’s emerging economies
Global investment outlook: 2026 and beyond
Broadening, steepening and weakening: Franklin Templeton’s top investment ideas for 2026 and beyond
BIS probes ‘exceptional’ FX activity around April shock
Triennial survey would likely have shown less dramatic shift without tariffs, economists find
Public backstop complements private liquidity – BoE paper
Wholesale funding conditions improve even without banks tapping lending facilities, researchers find
Minimum haircuts must be carefully designed – BIS bulletin
Funding- and collateral-driven trades incentivise different repo terms, authors point out
Rise of NBFIs suggests gradualism is best policy – BIS bulletin
Institutions’ uncertain effects on transmission warrant flexibility from central banks, says study